URAM ANALYTICS
Smarter Pitching Change Decisions, Backed by Data
The Pitching Change Decision Making Evaluation Framework is a data-driven system for evaluating bullpen moves based on matchups, game situation, and expected outcomes. Making the right move at the right time is one of baseball's toughest decisions, and even with deep instinct, it can be difficult to step back and ask if a move was actually the best option given the available information.
New to the framework? You can read the introductory post to see the full breakdown of how this was built, or dive straight into the tools below.
Project Overview
The Problem
Making the right bullpen move at the right time is one of baseball’s toughest and most scrutinized decisions. Even with deep knowledge and instinct, it's difficult to step back and ask, “Was that actually the best move - given who we had and what we knew?”
The Solution
The Pitching Change Decision Making Evaluation Framework is designed to bring structure and insight to bullpen strategy. For Major League Baseball, it's represented by the Pitching Change Decision Making Score (PCDMS) - a postgame metric that compares the move a team made to other realistic options, based on matchups and game situation. The same principles also power a live app, helping fans explore how different bullpen moves might play out in real time.
How It Works
The framework evaluates each bullpen decision by comparing the expected outcome of the actual move to the outcomes of other realistic options - based on batter-pitcher matchups, game situation, and bullpen availability. These comparisons are powered by machine learning models trained on historical plate appearance level data and simulations that estimate the potential impact of different decisions. The result is a framework that helps teams (and fans) assess whether a decision aligned with the best available options, not just whether it led to a good outcome.
Explore the Tools
PCDMS Dashboard
Explore bullpen decision-making across MLB - from high-level team strategy to individual pitching changes.
The dashboard showcases the Pitching Change Decision Making Scores (PCDMS) metric, lets you compare teams, analyze specific decisions, and understand the impact of bullpen moves at the player level.
Analyzing Bullpen Moves: Posts & Case Studies
Interested in Using This for Your Team?
The Pitching Change Evaluation Framework isn't just a theoretical exercise. It is currently being used by a Division I SEC baseball program to help audit bullpen strategy and sharpen in-game moves.
If you are part of a college or pro team looking to bring more structure to your pitching decisions, I can help you stand this up for your own roster. Whether you want to run postgame evaluations, live simulations, or build something custom that fits your specific workflow, I am available for collaborative projects and training.